A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
